Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists3
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Flames- Matvei GridinGoals1
- Zach WhitecloudAssists2
- Matvei GridinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:44Ryan Lomberg Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (29), Zach Whitecloud (8)3–4
- P34:17Kasperi Kapanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (13), Evan Bouchard (48)3–3
- P218:26Leon Draisaitl Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (47), Connor McDavid (62)2–3
- P211:43Connor Zary Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Zach Whitecloud (7), Nazem Kadri (28)1–3
- P114:44Matvei Gridin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (17), Devin Cooley (1)1–2
- P15:14Leon Draisaitl Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (32), Evan Bouchard (46)1–1
- P13:12Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (16), Matvei Gridin (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:44Matvei Gridin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (17), Devin Cooley (1)EDM 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 44% → 60% +17CGY 44% → 60%+17 pts
- P211:43Connor Zary Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Zach Whitecloud (7), Nazem Kadri (28)EDM 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 66% → 83% +17CGY 66% → 83%+17 pts
- P218:26Leon Draisaitl Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (47), Connor McDavid (62)EDM 2 – 3 CGY · EDM 13% → 31% +17EDM 13% → 31%+17 pts
- P34:17Kasperi Kapanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (13), Evan Bouchard (48)EDM 3 – 3 CGY · EDM 27% → 54% +27EDM 27% → 54%+27 pts
- P36:44Ryan Lomberg Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (29), Zach Whitecloud (8)EDM 3 – 4 CGY · CGY 47% → 76% +29CGY 47% → 76%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 57%
- ML EDM -148 / CGY +124
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 49.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -134
- CGY +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.5 – 3.0 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | 0 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +2 Elo | CGY 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%8th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 16th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 14–1418th of 32 |
| 29th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 8th of 321527 | Elo rating | 146128th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–35 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–32 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders | 34–23 | 29–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 6–4 CGY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.