Carolina Hurricanes at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints1
Kraken- Kaapo KakkoGoals1
- Adam LarssonAssists2
- Adam LarssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (13), Sean Walker (12)1–2
- P28:48Ben Meyers Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (14), Adam Larsson (13)0–2
- P23:22Kaapo Kakko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (12)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:22Kaapo Kakko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (12)CAR 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 40% → 59% +18SEA 40% → 59%+18 pts
- P28:48Ben Meyers Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (14), Adam Larsson (13)CAR 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 61% → 78% +17SEA 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P218:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (13), Sean Walker (12)CAR 1 – 2 SEA · CAR 15% → 34% +19CAR 15% → 34%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML CAR -185 / SEA +154
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 53.7%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -165
- SEA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +5 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +26 Elo | CAR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.6% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.8%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 5th of 3215–11 | Road vs home | 15–1416th of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149231st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321562 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–37 | 39–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–35 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27 | 24–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–2 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.