Seattle Kraken at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Jansen HarkinsAssists2
- Jansen HarkinsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:29Tye Kartye Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P315:31Jordan Eberle Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Jared McCann (14), Vince Dunn (26)1–4
- P313:54Ross Johnston Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (2), Tim Washe (1)0–4
- P30:24Alex Killorn Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (31), Ian Moore (7)0–3
- P219:27Jacob Trouba Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (1), Ryan Poehling (17)0–2
- P24:01Cutter Gauthier Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (30), Mikael Granlund (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:01Cutter Gauthier Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (30), Mikael Granlund (15)SEA 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 55% → 72% +17ANA 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P219:27Jacob Trouba Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (1), Ryan Poehling (17)SEA 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 76% → 91% +15ANA 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P30:24Alex Killorn Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (31), Ian Moore (7)SEA 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 91% → 98% +6ANA 91% → 98%+6 pts
- P313:54Ross Johnston Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (2), Tim Washe (1)SEA 0 – 4 ANA · ANA >99% → >99% +0ANA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P317:29Tye Kartye Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 2 – 4 ANA · SEA <1% → <1% +0SEA <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 56%
- ML SEA +120 / ANA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- ANA: Elo 53.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -129
- SEA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.1 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +24 Elo | ANA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 51.0%11th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 88.7%24th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 16–94th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321486 | Elo rating | 146925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–17 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 34–13 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 22–32 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–3 ANA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.