Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Mark StonePoints2
Ducks- Chris KreiderGoals2
- Troy TerryAssists2
- Chris KreiderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:54Tomas Hertl Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (35)3–4
- P318:53Ryan Poehling Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (31), Jacob Trouba (16)2–4
- P310:40Ivan Barbashev Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (45), Alexander Holtz (5)2–3
- P29:47Mitch Marner Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (34), Pavel Dorofeyev (17)1–3
- P24:32Cutter Gauthier Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (29), Beckett Sennecke (26)0–3
- P21:10Chris Kreider Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (15), Troy Terry (30)0–2
- P113:21Chris Kreider Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Ryan Poehling (16), Pavel Mintyukov (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:21Chris Kreider Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Ryan Poehling (16), Pavel Mintyukov (9)VGK 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 52% → 67% +16ANA 52% → 67%+16 pts
- P21:10Chris Kreider Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (15), Troy Terry (30)VGK 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 69% → 83% +14ANA 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P24:32Cutter Gauthier Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (29), Beckett Sennecke (26)VGK 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 84% → 93% +9ANA 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P29:47Mitch Marner Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (34), Pavel Dorofeyev (17)VGK 1 – 3 ANA · VGK 6% → 14% +9VGK 6% → 14%+9 pts
- P310:40Ivan Barbashev Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (45), Alexander Holtz (5)VGK 2 – 3 ANA · VGK 3% → 17% +14VGK 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 52%
- ML VGK -102 / ANA -118
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- ANA: Elo 52.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- ANA -107
- VGK +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.2 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +5 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +19 Elo | ANA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.223rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.8% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 88.6%25th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 15th of 3213–14 | Road vs home | 15–95th of 32 |
| 27th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 10th of 321512 | Elo rating | 146725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–37 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–36 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 31–23 | 34–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–5 ANA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.