Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P33:18Kaapo Kakko Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Adam Larsson (10)3–2
- P219:48Mitch Marner Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (44), Tomas Hertl (26)2–2
- P28:52Ivan Barbashev Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (43), Ben Hutton (9)2–1
- P113:04Jared McCann Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (25), Chandler Stephenson (21)2–0
- P16:50Eeli Tolvanen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (11), Chandler Stephenson (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:50Eeli Tolvanen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (11), Chandler Stephenson (20)SEA 1 – 0 VGK · SEA 38% → 53% +15SEA 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P113:04Jared McCann Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (25), Chandler Stephenson (21)SEA 2 – 0 VGK · SEA 55% → 70% +16SEA 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P28:52Ivan Barbashev Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (43), Ben Hutton (9)SEA 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 22% → 40% +18VGK 22% → 40%+18 pts
- P219:48Mitch Marner Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (44), Tomas Hertl (26)SEA 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 33% → 58% +25VGK 33% → 58%+25 pts
- P33:18Kaapo Kakko Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Adam Larsson (10)SEA 3 – 2 VGK · SEA 43% → 70% +27SEA 43% → 70%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 63%
- ML SEA +160 / VGK -192
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 58.6%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -171
- SEA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +60 Elo | VGK 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 66.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 53.7%3rd of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 21st of 3211–14 | Road vs home | 12–1424th of 32 |
| 30th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321483 | Elo rating | 15159th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–17 | 17–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 11–35 |
| Underdog | 33–13 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 22–31 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–5 VGK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.