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Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

Final/SOESPN+, Victory+, Scripps Sports

Away

Stars

31-14-9

5–4

at

Home

Golden Knights

25-14-14

DAL 48%VGK 52%

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T-Mobile Arena · ESPN+, Victory+, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored DAL favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3VGK50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Stars
Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • SO0:00Mikko Rantanen Goal Snap Shot2–0
  • SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Wrist Shot2–0
  • P319:11Mitch Marner Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (25)4–4
  • P313:54Ivan Barbashev Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (22), Mark Stone (33)4–3
  • P34:04Reilly Smith Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (9)4–2
  • P216:43Wyatt Johnston Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (46)4–1
  • P214:16Mavrik Bourque Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (9), Sam Steel (15)3–1
  • P28:46Mavrik Bourque Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (27), Jason Robertson (33)2–1
  • P24:07Keegan Kolesar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (41)1–1
  • P11:37Matt Duchene Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (14), Jamie Benn (8)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P11:37Matt Duchene Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (14), Jamie Benn (8)DAL 1 – 0 VGK · DAL 48% → 62% +15
  2. P24:07Keegan Kolesar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (41)DAL 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 33% → 52% +18
  3. P28:46Mavrik Bourque Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (27), Jason Robertson (33)DAL 2 – 1 VGK · DAL 48% → 68% +20
  4. P214:16Mavrik Bourque Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (9), Sam Steel (15)DAL 3 – 1 VGK · DAL 70% → 86% +16
  5. P319:11Mitch Marner Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (25)DAL 4 – 4 VGK · VGK <1% → 50% +50

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 52%

Toss-upMiss
DAL 48%VGK 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
VGK 52%
ML DAL +100 / VGK -120
Pre-line forecast
VGK 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 53%
Ratings vs. market
+0.3 pts
VGK: Elo 52.5%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
VGK -109
DAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 2.7 – 2.8 VGK
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALVGKWhy
Team rating15431518Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0+8DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +17 EloVGK 52.5%
Market-implied ratingsVGK 60.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVGK 58.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatVGK
12th of 323.3Goals scored3.311th of 32
4th of 322.8Goals allowed3.219th of 32
4th of 32+0.5Margin+0.211th of 32
24th of 3248.0%Shot share53.9%3rd of 32
7th of 3290.6%Save percentage88.1%31st of 32
16th of 325–5Last 106–48th of 32
7th of 3216–13Road vs home12–1324th of 32
26th of 321495Opponent Elo149429th of 32
4th of 321543Elo rating15189th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsGolden Knights
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALVGK
Puck line21–3217–35
Last 104–64–6
Favorite11–3011–34
Underdog10–26–1
Overs–unders25–2830–22
Overs–unders, last 103–77–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 6–7 VGK in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.