Vancouver Canucks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Liam OhgrenGoals1
- Pierre-Olivier JosephAssists1
- Liam OhgrenPoints1
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals2
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Jordan EberlePoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:00Jordan Eberle Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (16), Jamie Oleksiak (7)1–5
- P311:56Matty Beniers Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Jordan Eberle (19), Chandler Stephenson (25)1–4
- P213:47Jordan Eberle Goal (21) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P28:28Liam Ohgren Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (19), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (4)1–2
- P110:20Chandler Stephenson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (11), Jaden Schwartz (11)0–2
- P17:36Vince Dunn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:36Vince Dunn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (24)VAN 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 59% → 73% +14SEA 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P110:20Chandler Stephenson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (11), Jaden Schwartz (11)VAN 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 73% → 85% +11SEA 73% → 85%+11 pts
- P28:28Liam Ohgren Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (19), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (4)VAN 1 – 2 SEA · VAN 12% → 25% +13VAN 12% → 25%+13 pts
- P213:47Jordan Eberle Goal (21) Backhand, assists: noneVAN 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 76% → 90% +14SEA 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P311:56Matty Beniers Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Jordan Eberle (19), Chandler Stephenson (25)VAN 1 – 4 SEA · SEA 98% → >99% +2SEA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML VAN +136 / SEA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 64.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -146
- VAN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +4 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +105 Elo | SEA 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 46.2%29th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–18 | Road vs home | 14–1418th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 32 |
| 31st of 321422 | Elo rating | 147922nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–29 | 38–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 32–26 | 24–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–6 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.