Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:37Cole Perfetti Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (11), Dylan Samberg (10)3–2
- P218:45Gabriel Vilardi Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Mark Scheifele (43), Luke Schenn (6)2–2
- P20:38Evander Kane Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (22)1–2
- P111:42Kyle Connor Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (42)1–1
- P11:58Drew O'Connor Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:58Drew O'Connor Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (14)WPG 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 46% → 60% +15VAN 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P111:42Kyle Connor Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (42)WPG 1 – 1 VAN · WPG 38% → 54% +16WPG 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P20:38Evander Kane Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (22)WPG 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 47% → 64% +18VAN 47% → 64%+18 pts
- P218:45Gabriel Vilardi Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Mark Scheifele (43), Luke Schenn (6)WPG 2 – 2 VAN · WPG 29% → 53% +23WPG 29% → 53%+23 pts
- OT1:37Cole Perfetti Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (11), Dylan Samberg (10)WPG 3 – 2 VAN · WPG 51% → 94% +43WPG 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML WPG -130 / VAN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 53.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- VAN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +5 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +26 Elo | WPG 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 47.3%27th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 30th of 3210–18 | Road vs home | 6–2132nd of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321501 | Elo rating | 142431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–30 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 32–24 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 5–2 VAN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.