Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Josh AndersonAssists2
- Brendan GallagherPoints3
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:46Phillip Danault Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (8), Noah Dobson (28)5–1
- P310:57Brendan Gallagher Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (5), Zachary Bolduc (13)4–1
- P26:44Lane Hutson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (7), Brendan Gallagher (13)3–1
- P25:28Josh Anderson Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jayden Struble (8), Brendan Gallagher (12)2–1
- P116:26Oliver Kapanen Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (27), Juraj Slafkovský (24)1–1
- P16:07Kyle Connor Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (29), Mark Scheifele (41)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:07Kyle Connor Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (29), Mark Scheifele (41)MTL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 69% +15WPG 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P116:26Oliver Kapanen Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (27), Juraj Slafkovský (24)MTL 1 – 1 WPG · MTL 30% → 46% +16MTL 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P25:28Josh Anderson Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jayden Struble (8), Brendan Gallagher (12)MTL 2 – 1 WPG · MTL 47% → 66% +19MTL 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P26:44Lane Hutson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (7), Brendan Gallagher (13)MTL 3 – 1 WPG · MTL 66% → 82% +16MTL 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P310:57Brendan Gallagher Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (5), Zachary Bolduc (13)MTL 4 – 1 WPG · MTL 97% → >99% +3MTL 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML MTL +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 55.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +1 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +42 Elo | WPG 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.2%23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 9th of 3215–13 | Road vs home | 12–1525th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 15th of 321509 | Elo rating | 150716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–24 | 26–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 26–4 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 35–21 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–2 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.