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Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+, Victory+, Fox4

Away

Jets

22-25-8

3–4

at

Home

Stars

33-14-9

WPG 43%DAL 57%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN+, Victory+, Fox4

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored WPG favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTDAL50%WPG

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • OT2:05Thomas Harley Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (9), Miro Heiskanen (37)3–4
  • P318:17Logan Stanley Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (40), Kyle Connor (39)3–3
  • P312:17Mikko Rantanen Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Justin Hryckowian (10), Miro Heiskanen (36)2–3
  • P215:13Nils Lundkvist Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (8), Jamie Benn (12)2–2
  • P23:58Cole Perfetti Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (28), Mark Scheifele (39)2–1
  • P22:26Gabriel Vilardi Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (12), Adam Lowry (10)1–1
  • P20:48Jason Robertson Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (48), Roope Hintz (28)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P23:58Cole Perfetti Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (28), Mark Scheifele (39)WPG 2 – 1 DAL · WPG 44% → 63% +19
  2. P215:13Nils Lundkvist Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (8), Jamie Benn (12)WPG 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 33% → 55% +22
  3. P312:17Mikko Rantanen Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Justin Hryckowian (10), Miro Heiskanen (36)WPG 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 53% → 86% +33
  4. P318:17Logan Stanley Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (40), Kyle Connor (39)WPG 3 – 3 DAL · WPG 1% → 49% +47
  5. OT2:05Thomas Harley Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (9), Miro Heiskanen (37)WPG 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 52% → 95% +44

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 57%

LeanHit
WPG 43%DAL 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
DAL 57%
ML WPG +124 / DAL -148
Pre-line forecast
DAL 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 60%
Ratings vs. market
+2.9 pts
DAL: Elo 60.1%, market 57.2%
Fair odds
DAL -134
WPG +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WPG 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWPGDALWhy
Team rating15091548Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2−1WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +71 EloDAL 60.1%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 60.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 60.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 57.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
WPGStatDAL
23rd of 322.9Goals scored3.310th of 32
16th of 323.1Goals allowed2.83rd of 32
19th of 32−0.2Margin+0.63rd of 32
23rd of 3248.2%Shot share48.5%22nd of 32
18th of 3289.8%Save percentage90.4%8th of 32
13th of 325–5Last 106–48th of 32
30th of 3210–17Road vs home14–109th of 32
9th of 321502Opponent Elo149625th of 32
14th of 321509Elo rating15484th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

JetsStars
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWPGDAL
Puck line25–2923–32
Last 105–55–5
Favorite11–2211–30
Underdog14–712–2
Overs–unders31–2326–29
Overs–unders, last 105–53–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WPG 6–10 DAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.