Dallas Stars at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists2
- Jamie BennPoints2
Mammoth- Kailer YamamotoGoals2
- JJ PeterkaAssists2
- Kailer YamamotoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:41Kailer Yamamoto Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (18), Barrett Hayton (12)3–2
- P116:37Matt Duchene Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (11), Sam Steel (16)3–1
- P110:23Kailer Yamamoto Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (17), John Marino (21)2–1
- P17:42Wyatt Johnston Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (47), Miro Heiskanen (35)2–0
- P12:11Thomas Harley Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (11), Jamie Benn (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:11Thomas Harley Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (11), Jamie Benn (10)DAL 1 – 0 UTA · DAL 48% → 62% +15DAL 48% → 62%+15 pts
- P17:42Wyatt Johnston Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (47), Miro Heiskanen (35)DAL 2 – 0 UTA · DAL 63% → 77% +13DAL 63% → 77%+13 pts
- P110:23Kailer Yamamoto Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (17), John Marino (21)DAL 2 – 1 UTA · UTA 23% → 36% +14UTA 23% → 36%+14 pts
- P116:37Matt Duchene Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (11), Sam Steel (16)DAL 3 – 1 UTA · DAL 65% → 79% +14DAL 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P36:41Kailer Yamamoto Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (18), Barrett Hayton (12)DAL 3 – 2 UTA · UTA 6% → 23% +16UTA 6% → 23%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 52%
- ML DAL +100 / UTA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- UTA: Elo 51.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- UTA -109
- DAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.7 – 2.8 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +6 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +8 Elo | UTA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.2% | Shot share | 52.2%6th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 5th of 3217–13 | Road vs home | 15–95th of 32 |
| 25th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 4th of 321546 | Elo rating | 15169th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–32 | 25–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–30 | 12–22 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–28 | 28–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–2 UTA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.
