Montreal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- Quinn HughesPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (50), Matt Boldy (29)3–4
- P37:05Brock Faber Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (24), Quinn Hughes (49)3–3
- P30:12Kirby Dach Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (47), Noah Dobson (26)3–2
- P219:43Ivan Demidov Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (48), Alexandre Carrier (12)2–2
- P119:08Brendan Gallagher Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (11), Mike Matheson (23)1–2
- P115:48Kirill Kaprizov Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (48), Ryan Hartman (12)0–2
- P10:38Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (23), Matt Boldy (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:38Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (23), Matt Boldy (28)MTL 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 54% → 68% +14MIN 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P219:43Ivan Demidov Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (48), Alexandre Carrier (12)MTL 2 – 2 MIN · MTL 25% → 48% +23MTL 25% → 48%+23 pts
- P30:12Kirby Dach Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (47), Noah Dobson (26)MTL 3 – 2 MIN · MTL 48% → 72% +24MTL 48% → 72%+24 pts
- P37:05Brock Faber Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (24), Quinn Hughes (49)MTL 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 23% → 52% +29MIN 23% → 52%+29 pts
- OT3:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (50), Matt Boldy (29)MTL 3 – 4 MIN · MIN 51% → >99% +49MIN 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML MTL +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +1 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +53 Elo | MIN 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.45th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 91.1%2nd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 8th of 3215–12 | Road vs home | 16–1312th of 32 |
| 4th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 32 |
| 12th of 321511 | Elo rating | 15317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–24 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 25–4 | 20–4 |
| Overs–unders | 34–21 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–4 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.