Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Pierre-Olivier JosephGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists2
- Teddy BluegerPoints2
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P33:31Alexander Holtz Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (10), Jeremy Lauzon (9)2–5
- P32:31Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (42)2–4
- P219:51Pierre-Olivier Joseph Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (18), Teddy Blueger (3)2–3
- P27:39Ivan Barbashev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (37), Jack Eichel (46)1–3
- P27:11Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (5), Teddy Blueger (2)1–2
- P26:34Cole Reinhardt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (13), Shea Theodore (20)0–2
- P25:09Jack Eichel Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (23), Mark Stone (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:09Jack Eichel Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (23), Mark Stone (36)VAN 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 68% → 83% +15VGK 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P27:11Elias Pettersson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (5), Teddy Blueger (2)VAN 1 – 2 VGK · VAN 8% → 17% +10VAN 8% → 17%+10 pts
- P27:39Ivan Barbashev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (37), Jack Eichel (46)VAN 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 83% → 92% +10VGK 83% → 92%+10 pts
- P219:51Pierre-Olivier Joseph Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (18), Teddy Blueger (3)VAN 2 – 3 VGK · VAN 5% → 16% +11VAN 5% → 16%+11 pts
- P32:31Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (42)VAN 2 – 4 VGK · VGK 84% → 95% +11VGK 84% → 95%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 73%
- ML VAN +250 / VGK -310
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 66.9%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- VGK -265
- VAN +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 3.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −3 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +123 Elo | VGK 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 70.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 53.9%3rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 88.0%30th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 27th of 3212–17 | Road vs home | 12–1525th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 32 |
| 31st of 321427 | Elo rating | 151014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–28 | 18–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 11–36 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 31–25 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–6 VGK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.