Vancouver Canucks at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints2
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals3
- John MarinoAssists3
- Nick SchmaltzPoints4
Scoring summary
- P312:22Nick Schmaltz Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (36), Lawson Crouse (14)2–6
- P218:49Teddy Blueger Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (17), Marcus Pettersson (10)2–5
- P216:05JJ Peterka Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (8), John Marino (24)1–5
- P212:16Lawson Crouse Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (23), Clayton Keller (35)1–4
- P28:45Mikhail Sergachev Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (29), Dylan Guenther (22)1–3
- P17:37Nick Schmaltz Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (14)1–2
- P17:04Liam Ohgren Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (16), Teddy Blueger (1)1–1
- P13:34Nick Schmaltz Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (22), Barrett Hayton (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:34Nick Schmaltz Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (22), Barrett Hayton (13)VAN 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 71% → 82% +11UTA 71% → 82%+11 pts
- P17:04Liam Ohgren Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (16), Teddy Blueger (1)VAN 1 – 1 UTA · VAN 18% → 30% +12VAN 18% → 30%+12 pts
- P17:37Nick Schmaltz Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (14)VAN 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 70% → 82% +12UTA 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P28:45Mikhail Sergachev Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (29), Dylan Guenther (22)VAN 1 – 3 UTA · UTA 82% → 92% +10UTA 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P212:16Lawson Crouse Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (23), Clayton Keller (35)VAN 1 – 4 UTA · UTA 93% → 98% +5UTA 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 71%
- ML VAN +235 / UTA -290
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- UTA: Elo 67.9%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- UTA -249
- VAN +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 3.9 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +5 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +130 Elo | UTA 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 70.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 51.9%7th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–16 | Road vs home | 15–107th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150021st of 32 |
| 31st of 321430 | Elo rating | 151310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–27 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–25 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 0–4 UTA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.
