Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Ryker EvansGoals1
- Ryker EvansPoints1
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Thomas HarleyAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:46Ryker Evans Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: none1–4
- P26:14Wyatt Johnston Goal (31) Deflected, assists: Miro Heiskanen (40), Matt Duchene (11)0–4
- P25:35Sam Steel Goal (8) Poke, assists: Mavrik Bourque (12), Justin Hryckowian (11)0–3
- P21:43Matt Duchene Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (20)0–2
- P118:41Wyatt Johnston Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (18), Thomas Harley (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:41Wyatt Johnston Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (18), Thomas Harley (19)SEA 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 59% → 74% +16DAL 59% → 74%+16 pts
- P21:43Matt Duchene Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (20)SEA 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 75% → 87% +12DAL 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P25:35Sam Steel Goal (8) Poke, assists: Mavrik Bourque (12), Justin Hryckowian (11)SEA 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 88% → 95% +7DAL 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P26:14Wyatt Johnston Goal (31) Deflected, assists: Miro Heiskanen (40), Matt Duchene (11)SEA 0 – 4 DAL · DAL 95% → 98% +3DAL 95% → 98%+3 pts
- P36:46Ryker Evans Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 4 DAL · SEA <1% → <1% +1SEA <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 60%
- ML SEA +142 / DAL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.8%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -152
- SEA +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +98 Elo | DAL 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 17th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 16–107th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321487 | Elo rating | 15524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–18 | 23–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 11–32 |
| Underdog | 35–14 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–33 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–8 DAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.