Seattle Kraken at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals2
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Shane WrightPoints2
Kings- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals2
- Kevin FialaAssists2
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:50Shane Wright Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (13), Kaapo Kakko (15)4–2
- P210:27Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (26), Kevin Fiala (22)3–2
- P115:21Vince Dunn Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jared McCann (15), Chandler Stephenson (23)3–1
- P110:14Adam Larsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (22), Freddy Gaudreau (12)2–1
- P19:16Shane Wright Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Ryan Winterton (12)1–1
- P17:42Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (21), Kevin Fiala (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:16Shane Wright Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Ryan Winterton (12)SEA 1 – 1 LA · SEA 26% → 40% +14SEA 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P110:14Adam Larsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (22), Freddy Gaudreau (12)SEA 2 – 1 LA · SEA 40% → 56% +16SEA 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P115:21Vince Dunn Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jared McCann (15), Chandler Stephenson (23)SEA 3 – 1 LA · SEA 57% → 73% +16SEA 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P210:27Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (26), Kevin Fiala (22)SEA 3 – 2 LA · LA 20% → 37% +17LA 20% → 37%+17 pts
- P35:50Shane Wright Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (13), Kaapo Kakko (15)SEA 4 – 2 LA · SEA 73% → 91% +18SEA 73% → 91%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML SEA +145 / LA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- LA: Elo 61.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -156
- SEA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +78 Elo | LA 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 64.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%7th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 20th of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 8–1730th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 149820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–18 | 20–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 5–28 |
| Underdog | 34–14 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–33 | 23–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–4 LA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.