St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals1
- Jimmy SnuggerudAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Stars- Jamie BennGoals2
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Jamie BennPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:37Jamie Benn Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (39)4–5
- P315:31Alexey Toropchenko Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (16), Jimmy Snuggerud (14)4–4
- P311:05Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P211:57Jamie Benn Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (10), Esa Lindell (17)2–4
- P23:58Mavrik Bourque Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (34), Roope Hintz (29)2–3
- P21:55Matt Duchene Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (18), Jamie Benn (13)2–2
- P118:33Jordan Kyrou Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (19), Tyler Tucker (10)2–1
- P111:37Jason Robertson Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (49), Miro Heiskanen (38)1–1
- P17:29Pavel Buchnevich Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (19), Justin Faulk (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:33Jordan Kyrou Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (19), Tyler Tucker (10)STL 2 – 1 DAL · STL 37% → 54% +17STL 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P21:55Matt Duchene Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (18), Jamie Benn (13)STL 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 45% → 63% +18DAL 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P23:58Mavrik Bourque Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (34), Roope Hintz (29)STL 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 62% → 78% +16DAL 62% → 78%+16 pts
- P315:31Alexey Toropchenko Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (16), Jimmy Snuggerud (14)STL 4 – 4 DAL · STL 7% → 46% +38STL 7% → 46%+38 pts
- P319:37Jamie Benn Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (39)STL 4 – 5 DAL · DAL 51% → >99% +49DAL 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 66%
- ML STL +180 / DAL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 68.3%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -192
- STL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.3 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −1 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +133 Elo | DAL 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%8th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–19 | Road vs home | 15–108th of 32 |
| 19th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 29th of 321458 | Elo rating | 15504th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–29 | 23–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–19 | 11–31 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 29–27 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–7 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.