St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals2
- Jordan KyrouAssists3
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints3
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals2
- Roman JosiAssists4
- Roman JosiPoints4
Scoring summary
- P310:23Steven Stamkos Goal (27) Poke, assists: Brady Skjei (16), Luke Evangelista (34)5–6
- P37:14Steven Stamkos Goal (26) Wrap-around, assists: Luke Evangelista (33), Roman Josi (27)5–5
- P32:02Ryan O'Reilly Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Barron (5), Luke Evangelista (32)5–4
- P213:49Filip Forsberg Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (26), Erik Haula (19)5–3
- P211:35Michael McCarron Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Michael Bunting (18), Roman Josi (25)5–2
- P23:55Colton Parayko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (13), Philip Broberg (15)5–1
- P23:23Philip Broberg Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (18), Pavel Buchnevich (22)4–1
- P20:45Pavel Buchnevich Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (17), Jake Neighbours (11)3–1
- P114:24Pavel Buchnevich Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (10), Jordan Kyrou (16)2–1
- P19:16Ryan O'Reilly Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (22), Roman Josi (24)1–1
- P14:53Jake Neighbours Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Justin Faulk (17), Tyler Tucker (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:16Ryan O'Reilly Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (22), Roman Josi (24)STL 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 40% → 56% +16NSH 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P114:24Pavel Buchnevich Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (10), Jordan Kyrou (16)STL 2 – 1 NSH · STL 44% → 61% +17STL 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P32:02Ryan O'Reilly Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Barron (5), Luke Evangelista (32)STL 5 – 4 NSH · NSH 11% → 28% +17NSH 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P37:14Steven Stamkos Goal (26) Wrap-around, assists: Luke Evangelista (33), Roman Josi (27)STL 5 – 5 NSH · NSH 24% → 53% +29NSH 24% → 53%+29 pts
- P310:23Steven Stamkos Goal (27) Poke, assists: Brady Skjei (16), Luke Evangelista (34)STL 5 – 6 NSH · NSH 53% → 84% +31NSH 53% → 84%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 56%
- ML STL +120 / NSH -142
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NSH: Elo 55.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.6 – 2.9 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +37 Elo | NSH 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–18 | Road vs home | 13–1423rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 32 |
| 28th of 321460 | Elo rating | 146526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–29 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–19 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 28–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–5 NSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.