Columbus Blue Jackets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Kent JohnsonAssists1
- Kent JohnsonPoints2
Blues- Jonatan BerggrenGoals1
- Jonatan BerggrenAssists1
- Jonatan BerggrenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:30Mason Marchment Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (27), Adam Fantilli (22)5–3
- P216:01Damon Severson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (41)4–3
- P213:35Tyler Tucker Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (7), Jimmy Snuggerud (12)3–3
- P28:30Kent Johnson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (14), Dmitri Voronkov (15)3–2
- P23:15Jonatan Berggren Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (8), Brayden Schenn (12)2–2
- P112:54Denton Mateychuk Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (12), Sean Monahan (17)2–1
- P17:48Isac Lundeström Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (18), Miles Wood (5)1–1
- P17:11Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (11), Dalibor Dvorsky (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:54Denton Mateychuk Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (12), Sean Monahan (17)CBJ 2 – 1 STL · CBJ 52% → 67% +16CBJ 52% → 67%+16 pts
- P23:15Jonatan Berggren Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (8), Brayden Schenn (12)CBJ 2 – 2 STL · STL 31% → 49% +18STL 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P28:30Kent Johnson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (14), Dmitri Voronkov (15)CBJ 3 – 2 STL · CBJ 51% → 70% +19CBJ 51% → 70%+19 pts
- P213:35Tyler Tucker Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (7), Jimmy Snuggerud (12)CBJ 3 – 3 STL · STL 28% → 49% +21STL 28% → 49%+21 pts
- P216:01Damon Severson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (41)CBJ 4 – 3 STL · CBJ 51% → 73% +22CBJ 51% → 73%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 52%
- ML CBJ -118 / STL -102
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- CBJ: Elo 47.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -107
- STL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.3 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −6 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +15 Elo | STL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 47.3%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 19th of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 13–1626th of 32 |
| 6th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 20th of 321497 | Elo rating | 146427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–24 | 26–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 23–12 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 5–0 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.