Columbus Blue Jackets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Charlie CoyleGoals3
- Zach WerenskiAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints4
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:57Charlie Coyle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (18), Mathieu Olivier (9)4–2
- P210:49Frank Nazar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (30), Tyler Bertuzzi (16)3–2
- P26:47Mathieu Olivier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (24), Zach Werenski (40)3–1
- P21:23Charlie Coyle Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P119:57Connor Bedard Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (12), Tyler Bertuzzi (15)1–1
- P119:13Charlie Coyle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (39), Kirill Marchenko (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:13Charlie Coyle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (39), Kirill Marchenko (26)CBJ 1 – 0 CHI · CBJ 58% → 74% +16CBJ 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P119:57Connor Bedard Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (12), Tyler Bertuzzi (15)CBJ 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 26% → 42% +16CHI 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P21:23Charlie Coyle Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 1 CHI · CBJ 58% → 74% +17CBJ 58% → 74%+17 pts
- P26:47Mathieu Olivier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (24), Zach Werenski (40)CBJ 3 – 1 CHI · CBJ 75% → 88% +13CBJ 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P210:49Frank Nazar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (30), Tyler Bertuzzi (16)CBJ 3 – 2 CHI · CHI 11% → 25% +13CHI 11% → 25%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 59%
- ML CBJ -162 / CHI +136
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CBJ: Elo 56.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -146
- CHI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.5 – 3.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +8 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +44 Elo | CBJ 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 45.7%31st of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–15 | Road vs home | 11–1829th of 32 |
| 4th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 20th of 321493 | Elo rating | 142132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–24 | 36–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 23–12 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 27–25 | 24–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 4–0 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.