Nashville Predators at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists1
- Mathew BarzalPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:46Roman Josi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (9), Erik Haula (18)4–3
- P214:11Filip Forsberg Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (8)3–3
- P27:21Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (19), Simon Holmstrom (15)2–3
- P112:53Matthew Wood Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (5), Tyson Jost (5)2–2
- P19:59Filip Forsberg Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (23), Steven Stamkos (14)1–2
- P15:57Matthew Schaefer Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (20), Mathew Barzal (32)0–2
- P11:29Mathew Barzal Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (14), Tony DeAngelo (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:29Mathew Barzal Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (14), Tony DeAngelo (20)NSH 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 67% +14NYI 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P112:53Matthew Wood Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (5), Tyson Jost (5)NSH 2 – 2 NYI · NSH 31% → 47% +16NSH 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P27:21Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (19), Simon Holmstrom (15)NSH 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 52% → 71% +19NYI 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P214:11Filip Forsberg Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (8)NSH 3 – 3 NYI · NSH 27% → 48% +21NSH 27% → 48%+21 pts
- P318:46Roman Josi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (9), Erik Haula (18)NSH 4 – 3 NYI · NSH 50% → >99% +50NSH 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 53%
- ML NSH +105 / NYI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- NYI: Elo 59.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.7 – 2.8 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +3 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +68 Elo | NYI 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.0%17th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.0%3rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 27th of 3210–14 | Road vs home | 15–1110th of 32 |
| 4th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 28th of 321462 | Elo rating | 149321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–26 | 29–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 3–16 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 26–9 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 25–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–2 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.