Seattle Kraken at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Kaapo KakkoGoals1
- Shane WrightAssists1
- Kaapo KakkoPoints1
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals3
- Pius SuterAssists2
- Dylan HollowayPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:59Dylan Holloway Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Justin Faulk (21), Jack Finley (2)1–5
- P31:56Pius Suter Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (10), Justin Faulk (20)1–4
- P21:35Dylan Holloway Goal (10) Poke, assists: Jonatan Berggren (9), Pius Suter (10)1–3
- P21:12Jordan Kyrou Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (23), Colton Parayko (13)1–2
- P112:32Kaapo Kakko Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (12), Brandon Montour (16)1–1
- P17:58Dylan Holloway Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (8), Pius Suter (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:58Dylan Holloway Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (8), Pius Suter (9)SEA 0 – 1 STL · STL 56% → 71% +15STL 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P112:32Kaapo Kakko Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (12), Brandon Montour (16)SEA 1 – 1 STL · SEA 29% → 44% +15SEA 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P21:12Jordan Kyrou Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (23), Colton Parayko (13)SEA 1 – 2 STL · STL 55% → 72% +17STL 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P21:35Dylan Holloway Goal (10) Poke, assists: Jonatan Berggren (9), Pius Suter (10)SEA 1 – 3 STL · STL 72% → 85% +13STL 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P31:56Pius Suter Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (10), Justin Faulk (20)SEA 1 – 4 STL · STL 92% → 98% +6STL 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML SEA +120 / STL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- STL: Elo 55.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -129
- SEA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +41 Elo | STL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 47.5%25th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 87.9%31st of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 18th of 3213–16 | Road vs home | 13–1727th of 32 |
| 29th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Elo rating | 145728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–19 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 1–19 |
| Underdog | 35–15 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 23–34 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–5 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.