Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals1
- Taylor HallAssists2
- Taylor HallPoints3
Scoring summary
- P35:30Jackson Blake Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (18), Shayne Gostisbehere (31)2–5
- P32:18Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (19), Taylor Hall (17)2–4
- P219:13Patrick Kane Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (33), J.T. Compher (12)2–3
- P218:26Simon Edvinsson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (28), Dylan Larkin (26)1–3
- P22:52Eric Robinson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: William Carrier (7), Sean Walker (11)0–3
- P119:52Sebastian Aho Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (30), Seth Jarvis (20)0–2
- P114:05Taylor Hall Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:05Taylor Hall Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 62% → 76% +15CAR 62% → 76%+15 pts
- P119:52Sebastian Aho Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (30), Seth Jarvis (20)DET 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 76% → 88% +11CAR 76% → 88%+11 pts
- P22:52Eric Robinson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: William Carrier (7), Sean Walker (11)DET 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 88% → 95% +7CAR 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P219:13Patrick Kane Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (33), J.T. Compher (12)DET 2 – 3 CAR · DET 8% → 21% +13DET 8% → 21%+13 pts
- P32:18Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (19), Taylor Hall (17)DET 2 – 4 CAR · CAR 80% → 94% +13CAR 80% → 94%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 63%
- ML DET +160 / CAR -192
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 60.2%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -171
- DET +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −15 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +72 Elo | CAR 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 56.7%1st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 8th of 3216–13 | Road vs home | 22–103rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150021st of 32 |
| 14th of 321510 | Elo rating | 15583rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–29 | 21–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 19–35 |
| Underdog | 24–9 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 31–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–6 CAR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.