Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists2
- Lucas RaymondPoints2
AvalancheScoring summary
- P319:29Lucas Raymond Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (25)2–0
- P10:33Marco Kasper Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Lucas Raymond (41), Dylan Larkin (24)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:33Marco Kasper Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Lucas Raymond (41), Dylan Larkin (24)DET 1 – 0 COL · DET 37% → 51% +14DET 37% → 51%+14 pts
- P319:29Lucas Raymond Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (25)DET 2 – 0 COL · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 63%
- ML DET +160 / COL -192
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- COL: Elo 64.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -171
- DET +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −6 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +107 Elo | COL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 65.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.41st of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 56.1%2nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 91.3%1st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 8th of 3214–12 | Road vs home | 20–61st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 32 |
| 15th of 321506 | Elo rating | 15861st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–28 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 27–25 |
| Underdog | 22–8 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 28–28 | 25–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–4 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.