Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Artturi LehkonenAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Red WingsScoring summary
- P37:35Parker Kelly Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Joel Kiviranta (5), Jack Drury (11)5–0
- P213:33Nathan MacKinnon Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (23)4–0
- P21:24Ross Colton Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (20), Josh Manson (19)3–0
- P110:03Nathan MacKinnon Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (22)2–0
- P16:44Brent Burns Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (51), Valeri Nichushkin (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:44Brent Burns Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (51), Valeri Nichushkin (19)COL 1 – 0 DET · COL 54% → 69% +15COL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P110:03Nathan MacKinnon Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (22)COL 2 – 0 DET · COL 69% → 82% +12COL 69% → 82%+12 pts
- P21:24Ross Colton Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (20), Josh Manson (19)COL 3 – 0 DET · COL 84% → 93% +9COL 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P213:33Nathan MacKinnon Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (23)COL 4 – 0 DET · COL 96% → 99% +3COL 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P37:35Parker Kelly Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Joel Kiviranta (5), Jack Drury (11)COL 5 – 0 DET · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 54%
- ML COL -130 / DET +110
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- COL: Elo 53.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 3.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +5 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +21 Elo | COL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 4th of 3215–11 | Road vs home | 18–118th of 32 |
| 24th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321581 | Elo rating | 151111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–25 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–25 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 22–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–27 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–1 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.