Detroit Red Wings at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints1
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:42Clayton Keller Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (30), Lawson Crouse (15)1–4
- P315:52Dylan Larkin Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (11), Moritz Seider (31)1–3
- P34:40Dylan Guenther Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P18:11Nick Schmaltz Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (14), Clayton Keller (37)0–2
- P10:57Sean Durzi Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:57Sean Durzi Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneDET 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 55% → 69% +14UTA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P18:11Nick Schmaltz Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (14), Clayton Keller (37)DET 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 70% → 82% +12UTA 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P34:40Dylan Guenther Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 0 – 3 UTA · UTA 93% → 99% +5UTA 93% → 99%+5 pts
- P315:52Dylan Larkin Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (11), Moritz Seider (31)DET 1 – 3 UTA · DET <1% → <1% +0DET <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P317:42Clayton Keller Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (30), Lawson Crouse (15)DET 1 – 4 UTA · UTA >99% → >99% +0UTA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 55%
- ML DET +114 / UTA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- UTA: Elo 55.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -123
- DET +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.6 – 2.9 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +41 Elo | UTA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 51.8%8th of 32 |
| 12th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.6%18th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 8th of 3215–12 | Road vs home | 16–107th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321511 | Elo rating | 15169th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–28 | 26–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 23–8 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 28–29 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.
