Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals2
- Lucas RaymondAssists2
- Dylan LarkinPoints2
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:50Dylan Larkin Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (43)2–1
- P25:24Dylan Larkin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (42), Moritz Seider (32)1–1
- P118:44Brady Tkachuk Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (36), Tim Stützle (34)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:44Brady Tkachuk Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (36), Tim Stützle (34)DET 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 57% → 73% +16OTT 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P25:24Dylan Larkin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (42), Moritz Seider (32)DET 1 – 1 OTT · DET 26% → 44% +18DET 26% → 44%+18 pts
- OT1:50Dylan Larkin Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (43)DET 2 – 1 OTT · DET 48% → 94% +46DET 48% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 58%
- ML DET +130 / OTT -155
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 56.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -140
- DET +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +9 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +46 Elo | OTT 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 53.8%3rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 87.3%32nd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 9th of 3215–13 | Road vs home | 14–1419th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150119th of 32 |
| 16th of 321507 | Elo rating | 151313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–29 | 24–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 23–9 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30 | 33–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–6 OTT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.