Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists1
- Nick CousinsPoints1
Flyers- Jamie DrysdaleGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists1
- Jamie DrysdalePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:47Tim Stützle Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (23)2–1
- P318:46Jamie Drysdale Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (11), Trevor Zegras (29)1–1
- P29:55Nick Cousins Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (14), Michael Amadio (14)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:55Nick Cousins Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (14), Michael Amadio (14)OTT 1 – 0 PHI · OTT 53% → 72% +19OTT 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P318:46Jamie Drysdale Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (11), Trevor Zegras (29)OTT 1 – 1 PHI · PHI <1% → 49% +49PHI <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT0:47Tim Stützle Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (23)OTT 2 – 1 PHI · OTT 51% → 92% +41OTT 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 54%
- ML OTT -130 / PHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- OTT: Elo 49.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.4 – 3.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +9 | OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +2 Elo | PHI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 88.2%29th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 16th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 13–1524th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 146228th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–32 | 33–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–27 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 25–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–23 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 6–2 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.