Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Anthony BeauvillierGoals1
- Anthony BeauvillierAssists1
- Anthony BeauvillierPoints2
Flyers- Rasmus RistolainenGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists2
- Rasmus RistolainenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:43Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (32)2–4
- P314:37Jamie Drysdale Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (28), Travis Konecny (31)2–3
- P32:40Anthony Beauvillier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (14), Trevor van Riemsdyk (6)2–2
- P28:12Aliaksei Protas Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (8)1–2
- P24:45Carl Grundstrom Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Deslauriers (1), Rasmus Ristolainen (5)0–2
- P15:56Owen Tippett Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Travis Sanheim (18), Matvei Michkov (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:56Owen Tippett Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Travis Sanheim (18), Matvei Michkov (16)WSH 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 56% → 70% +14PHI 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P24:45Carl Grundstrom Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Deslauriers (1), Rasmus Ristolainen (5)WSH 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 73% → 86% +13PHI 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P28:12Aliaksei Protas Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (8)WSH 1 – 2 PHI · WSH 13% → 27% +14WSH 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P32:40Anthony Beauvillier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (14), Trevor van Riemsdyk (6)WSH 2 – 2 PHI · WSH 22% → 47% +24WSH 22% → 47%+24 pts
- P314:37Jamie Drysdale Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (28), Travis Konecny (31)WSH 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 52% → 90% +38PHI 52% → 90%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML WSH +120 / PHI -142
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- WSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 3.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +9 | WSH: Clay Stevenson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +20 Elo | PHI 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.3%16th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.1%29th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–16 | Road vs home | 12–1524th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321514 | Elo rating | 145928th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–26 | 32–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 25–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–29 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–1 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.