New York Islanders at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Mathew BarzalPoints1
Capitals- Anthony BeauvillierGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Anthony BeauvillierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:35John Carlson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (19)1–4
- P38:46Nic Dowd Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (16), Ethen Frank (12)1–3
- P26:00Anthony Beauvillier Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Matt Roy (14), Alex Ovechkin (25)1–2
- P25:29Martin Fehervary Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (26), Nic Dowd (12)1–1
- P116:38Mathew Barzal Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:38Mathew Barzal Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 1 – 0 WSH · NYI 46% → 63% +17NYI 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P25:29Martin Fehervary Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (26), Nic Dowd (12)NYI 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 34% → 53% +19WSH 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P26:00Anthony Beauvillier Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Matt Roy (14), Alex Ovechkin (25)NYI 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 53% → 71% +18WSH 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P38:46Nic Dowd Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (16), Ethen Frank (12)NYI 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 81% → 96% +15WSH 81% → 96%+15 pts
- P317:35John Carlson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (19)NYI 1 – 4 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML NYI +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- NYI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.1 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −14 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WSH: Clay Stevenson: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +42 Elo | WSH 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3215–13 | Road vs home | 15–1315th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 32 |
| 21st of 321490 | Elo rating | 151012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–26 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–17 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 26–9 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 26–29 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–6 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.