Carolina Hurricanes at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals3
- Seth JarvisAssists2
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints3
Canucks- Filip HronekGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Filip HronekPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:46Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (38), Andrei Svechnikov (31)6–4
- P36:45Nils Hoglander Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (24), Filip Hronek (29)5–4
- P219:17Brock Boeser Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (11), Filip Hronek (28)5–3
- P212:50Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (13)5–2
- P211:53Sebastian Aho Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (22), K'Andre Miller (21)4–2
- P24:19Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (12), Jalen Chatfield (14)3–2
- P22:30Sean Walker Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (19), Jackson Blake (20)2–2
- P117:15Filip Hronek Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (9), Linus Karlsson (14)1–2
- P116:31Marco Rossi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (23), Jake DeBrusk (17)1–1
- P11:17Andrei Svechnikov Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (21), Shayne Gostisbehere (32)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:31Marco Rossi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (23), Jake DeBrusk (17)CAR 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 16% → 29% +13VAN 16% → 29%+13 pts
- P117:15Filip Hronek Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (9), Linus Karlsson (14)CAR 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 29% → 46% +16VAN 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P22:30Sean Walker Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (19), Jackson Blake (20)CAR 2 – 2 VAN · CAR 52% → 70% +18CAR 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P24:19Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (12), Jalen Chatfield (14)CAR 3 – 2 VAN · CAR 69% → 83% +14CAR 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P36:45Nils Hoglander Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (24), Filip Hronek (29)CAR 5 – 4 VAN · VAN 3% → 14% +11VAN 3% → 14%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 74%
- ML CAR -340 / VAN +270
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 67.9%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -286
- VAN +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 4.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −10 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +130 Elo | CAR 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 66.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.8% | Shot share | 47.1%27th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.4%27th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3215–12 | Road vs home | 6–2332nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 4th of 321559 | Elo rating | 141532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–38 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders | 32–28 | 33–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–2 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.