Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Lian BichselGoals2
- Sam SteelAssists2
- Lian BichselPoints2
Canucks- Evander KaneGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:41Lian Bichsel Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (13), Jason Robertson (36)6–1
- P35:40Colin Blackwell Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none5–1
- P31:33Matt Duchene Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (18), Miro Heiskanen (43)4–1
- P29:41Jason Robertson Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (12), Miro Heiskanen (42)3–1
- P28:31Lian Bichsel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (7), Sam Steel (17)2–1
- P117:40Adam Erne Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (6)1–1
- P17:57Evander Kane Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Jake DeBrusk (16), Marcus Pettersson (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:57Evander Kane Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Jake DeBrusk (16), Marcus Pettersson (11)DAL 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 36% → 52% +15VAN 36% → 52%+15 pts
- P117:40Adam Erne Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (6)DAL 1 – 1 VAN · DAL 45% → 62% +17DAL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P28:31Lian Bichsel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (7), Sam Steel (17)DAL 2 – 1 VAN · DAL 61% → 78% +17DAL 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P29:41Jason Robertson Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (12), Miro Heiskanen (42)DAL 3 – 1 VAN · DAL 78% → 90% +12DAL 78% → 90%+12 pts
- P31:33Matt Duchene Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (18), Miro Heiskanen (43)DAL 4 – 1 VAN · DAL 94% → 99% +5DAL 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 64%
- ML DAL -205 / VAN +170
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- DAL -181
- VAN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.2 – 2.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +6 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +96 Elo | DAL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 47.4%27th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.5%27th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218–13 | Road vs home | 6–2232nd of 32 |
| 27th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149923rd of 32 |
| 4th of 321556 | Elo rating | 141832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–35 | 29–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–33 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–3 VAN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.