Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists2
- Luke EvangelistaPoints2
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:47Jason Robertson Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (41), Wyatt Johnston (31)2–3
- P35:31Nathan Bastian Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (21)2–2
- P216:18Wyatt Johnston Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (14), Jason Robertson (35)2–1
- P115:35Steven Stamkos Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (36)2–0
- P114:26Michael Bunting Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (9), Luke Evangelista (35)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:26Michael Bunting Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (9), Luke Evangelista (35)NSH 1 – 0 DAL · NSH 44% → 60% +17NSH 44% → 60%+17 pts
- P115:35Steven Stamkos Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (36)NSH 2 – 0 DAL · NSH 61% → 76% +15NSH 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P216:18Wyatt Johnston Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (14), Jason Robertson (35)NSH 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 15% → 32% +17DAL 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P35:31Nathan Bastian Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (21)NSH 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 26% → 54% +28DAL 26% → 54%+28 pts
- OT1:47Jason Robertson Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (41), Wyatt Johnston (31)NSH 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 52% → 95% +43DAL 52% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 57%
- ML NSH +124 / DAL -148
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 67.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -134
- NSH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +124 Elo | DAL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 49.0%20th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 24th of 3211–15 | Road vs home | 17–106th of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 32 |
| 25th of 321465 | Elo rating | 15554th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–28 | 24–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 12–32 |
| Underdog | 26–16 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–28 | 28–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 4–6 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.