Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Ryan GreeneAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Erik HaulaAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:12Steven Stamkos Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P316:44Ryan O'Reilly Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (29)2–3
- P37:12Matthew Wood Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (21)2–2
- P33:16Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (14), Sam Rinzel (8)2–1
- P24:13Connor Bedard Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (14)1–1
- P113:50Filip Forsberg Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:50Filip Forsberg Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 60% → 75% +15NSH 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P24:13Connor Bedard Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (14)CHI 1 – 1 NSH · CHI 25% → 42% +17CHI 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P33:16Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (14), Sam Rinzel (8)CHI 2 – 1 NSH · CHI 44% → 71% +27CHI 44% → 71%+27 pts
- P37:12Matthew Wood Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (21)CHI 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 25% → 55% +30NSH 25% → 55%+30 pts
- P316:44Ryan O'Reilly Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (29)CHI 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 53% → 95% +42NSH 53% → 95%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 61%
- ML CHI +145 / NSH -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- NSH: Elo 59.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NSH -156
- CHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −6 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +68 Elo | NSH 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.6% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.0%23rd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 29th of 3210–16 | Road vs home | 14–1521st of 32 |
| 19th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321419 | Elo rating | 146227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–20 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 37–18 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders | 25–32 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–8 NSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.