San Jose Sharks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals2
- Ilya MikheyevAssists3
- Ryan DonatoPoints4
Scoring summary
- P314:41Ryan Donato Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (12), Connor Murphy (8)3–6
- P32:13Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Philipp Kurashev (10), Vincent Desharnais (3)3–5
- P215:11Macklin Celebrini Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (21), William Eklund (24)2–5
- P212:41Ilya Mikheyev Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jason Dickinson (7), Ryan Donato (12)1–5
- P212:05Will Smith Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (53), Collin Graf (16)1–4
- P210:36Sam Rinzel Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (11)0–4
- P29:35Ryan Donato Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (10), Jason Dickinson (6)0–3
- P22:14Connor Murphy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (12), Ryan Donato (11)0–2
- P17:00Connor Bedard Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (13), Tyler Bertuzzi (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:00Connor Bedard Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (13), Tyler Bertuzzi (17)SJ 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 49% → 64% +15CHI 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P22:14Connor Murphy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (12), Ryan Donato (11)SJ 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 67% → 82% +15CHI 67% → 82%+15 pts
- P29:35Ryan Donato Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (10), Jason Dickinson (6)SJ 0 – 3 CHI · CHI 84% → 94% +9CHI 84% → 94%+9 pts
- P210:36Sam Rinzel Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (11)SJ 0 – 4 CHI · CHI 94% → 98% +4CHI 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P32:13Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Philipp Kurashev (10), Vincent Desharnais (3)SJ 3 – 5 CHI · SJ 2% → 9% +7SJ 2% → 9%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 51%
- ML SJ -115 / CHI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- SJ: Elo 46.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SJ -104
- CHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.3 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +6 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +27 Elo | CHI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.4% | Shot share | 45.7%31st of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%14th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 32 |
| 15th of 3213–14 | Road vs home | 11–1929th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 30th of 321441 | Elo rating | 141832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–17 | 36–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 34–16 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 24–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 2–4 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.