Chicago Blackhawks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Blue Jackets- Danton HeinenGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:33Sean Monahan Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P25:17Danton Heinen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (27)0–3
- P112:50Ivan Provorov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (23), Mason Marchment (13)0–2
- P14:46Zach Werenski Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (20), Charlie Coyle (26)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:46Zach Werenski Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (20), Charlie Coyle (26)CHI 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 58% → 72% +14CBJ 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P112:50Ivan Provorov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (23), Mason Marchment (13)CHI 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 72% → 84% +12CBJ 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P25:17Danton Heinen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (27)CHI 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 87% → 95% +8CBJ 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P315:33Sean Monahan Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 0 – 4 CBJ · CBJ >99% → >99% +0CBJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 58%
- ML CHI +130 / CBJ -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- CBJ: Elo 63.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -140
- CHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 3.0 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +12 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +94 Elo | CBJ 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.6% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 29th of 3210–15 | Road vs home | 14–1214th of 32 |
| 20th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321422 | Elo rating | 150617th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–19 | 31–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 37–17 | 25–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–5 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.