Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Mathieu OlivierGoals2
- Charlie CoyleAssists1
- Mathieu OlivierPoints2
DevilsScoring summary
- P316:00Mathieu Olivier Goal (8) , assists: Charlie Coyle (25), Zach Werenski (42)3–0
- P312:05Mathieu Olivier Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Cole Sillinger (19), Boone Jenner (19)2–0
- P35:24Dante Fabbro Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P35:24Dante Fabbro Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 1 – 0 NJ · CBJ 50% → 77% +27CBJ 50% → 77%+27 pts
- P312:05Mathieu Olivier Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Cole Sillinger (19), Boone Jenner (19)CBJ 2 – 0 NJ · CBJ 84% → 98% +13CBJ 84% → 98%+13 pts
- P316:00Mathieu Olivier Goal (8) , assists: Charlie Coyle (25), Zach Werenski (42)CBJ 3 – 0 NJ · CBJ >99% → >99% +0CBJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 50%
- ML CBJ -112 / NJ -108
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CBJ: Elo 46.7%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -102
- NJ +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 2.7 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −2 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +23 Elo | NJ 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 16th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 13–1217th of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15061st of 32 |
| 19th of 321501 | Elo rating | 147723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–24 | 19–36 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 5–27 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 28–26 | 23–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–7 NJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.