Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Adam WilsbyAssists2
- Adam WilsbyPoints2
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Jakob ChychrunPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:11Jakob Chychrun Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (31), Alex Ovechkin (26)2–4
- P31:17Michael McCarron Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (4), Adam Wilsby (11)2–3
- P217:40Jonathan Marchessault Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Erik Haula (20), Adam Wilsby (10)1–3
- P28:42Jakob Chychrun Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
- P112:48Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (30), John Carlson (36)0–2
- P14:15Tom Wilson Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Jakob Chychrun (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:15Tom Wilson Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Jakob Chychrun (25)NSH 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 61% → 74% +14WSH 61% → 74%+14 pts
- P112:48Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (30), John Carlson (36)NSH 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 74% → 86% +11WSH 74% → 86%+11 pts
- P28:42Jakob Chychrun Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: noneNSH 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 89% → 96% +7WSH 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P31:17Michael McCarron Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (4), Adam Wilsby (11)NSH 2 – 3 WSH · NSH 7% → 21% +14NSH 7% → 21%+14 pts
- P313:11Jakob Chychrun Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (31), Alex Ovechkin (26)NSH 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 88% → 99% +11WSH 88% → 99%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 61%
- ML NSH +145 / WSH -175
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 66.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -156
- NSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +5 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +122 Elo | WSH 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 64.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%9th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3211–14 | Road vs home | 16–1314th of 32 |
| 5th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 26th of 321465 | Elo rating | 151014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–27 | 31–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 17–22 |
| Underdog | 26–15 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26 | 28–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.