Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals3
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints4
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists3
- Steven StamkosPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:14Jared Spurgeon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (30), Kirill Kaprizov (38)6–5
- P315:48Roman Josi Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (36), Steven Stamkos (16)5–5
- P315:14Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (12), Danila Yurov (14)5–4
- P216:06Yakov Trenin Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none4–4
- P20:41Luke Evangelista Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (15), Ryan O'Reilly (35)3–4
- P118:21Erik Haula Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (7), Nick Perbix (6)3–3
- P116:45Steven Stamkos Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (23), Ryan O'Reilly (34)3–2
- P112:58Matt Boldy Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (52), Brock Faber (24)3–1
- P19:26Filip Forsberg Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (28), Jonathan Marchessault (6)2–1
- P13:39Matt Boldy Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (51), Mats Zuccarello (24)2–0
- P11:49Matt Boldy Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (4), Joel Eriksson Ek (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:41Luke Evangelista Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (15), Ryan O'Reilly (35)MIN 3 – 4 NSH · NSH 47% → 65% +18NSH 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P216:06Yakov Trenin Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneMIN 4 – 4 NSH · MIN 30% → 52% +22MIN 30% → 52%+22 pts
- P315:14Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (12), Danila Yurov (14)MIN 5 – 4 NSH · MIN 51% → 91% +40MIN 51% → 91%+40 pts
- P315:48Roman Josi Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (36), Steven Stamkos (16)MIN 5 – 5 NSH · NSH 8% → 49% +41NSH 8% → 49%+41 pts
- OT4:14Jared Spurgeon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (30), Kirill Kaprizov (38)MIN 6 – 5 NSH · MIN 50% → >99% +50MIN 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / NSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +32 Elo | MIN 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.9% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3216–11 | Road vs home | 14–1418th of 32 |
| 27th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 5th of 321533 | Elo rating | 146726th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–27 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 20–4 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–23 | 29–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–4 NSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.