Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast

FinalESPN

Away

Oilers

29-23-8

8–1

at

Home

Kings

23-21-14

EDM 52%LA 48%

You didn't pick this one.

crypto.com Arena · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.

LA favored EDM favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3LA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers
Kings

Scoring summary

  • P37:36Jake Walman Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (54)8–1
  • P35:24Jake Walman Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (13), Leon Draisaitl (53)7–1
  • P30:31Leon Draisaitl Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (65)6–1
  • P28:44Zach Hyman Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (52), Evan Bouchard (50)5–1
  • P24:58Connor McDavid Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (16)4–1
  • P22:59Andrew Mangiapane Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (15), Mattias Ekholm (24)3–1
  • P112:15Warren Foegele Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (15)2–1
  • P18:19Vasily Podkolzin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (7), Darnell Nurse (13)2–0
  • P17:25Ty Emberson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (10), Matt Savoie (12)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P17:25Ty Emberson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (10), Matt Savoie (12)EDM 1 – 0 LA · EDM 52% → 67% +15
  2. P18:19Vasily Podkolzin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (7), Darnell Nurse (13)EDM 2 – 0 LA · EDM 67% → 80% +13
  3. P112:15Warren Foegele Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (15)EDM 2 – 1 LA · LA 19% → 32% +13
  4. P22:59Andrew Mangiapane Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (15), Mattias Ekholm (24)EDM 3 – 1 LA · EDM 69% → 83% +14
  5. P24:58Connor McDavid Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (16)EDM 4 – 1 LA · EDM 84% → 93% +9

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 52%

Toss-upHit
EDM 52%LA 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 52%
ML EDM -120 / LA +100
Pre-line forecast
EDM 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 50%
Ratings vs. market
−2.0 pts
EDM: Elo 50.2%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
EDM -109
LA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.3 – 3.2 LA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMLAWhy
Team rating15221486Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30−30LA and EDM on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies+1+1EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +1 EloEDM 50.2%
Market-implied ratingsLA 52.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLA 51.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatLA
5th of 323.4Goals scored2.628th of 32
26th of 323.4Goals allowed2.98th of 32
15th of 32+0.1Margin−0.324th of 32
6th of 3252.5%Shot share50.4%14th of 32
29th of 3288.2%Save percentage90.1%12th of 32
18th of 324–6Last 104–618th of 32
20th of 3213–17Road vs home8–1930th of 32
28th of 321493Opponent Elo15029th of 32
8th of 321522Elo rating148621st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersKings
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMLA
Puck line22–3720–37
Last 102–82–8
Favorite17–345–30
Underdog5–315–7
Overs–unders36–2325–32
Overs–unders, last 108–24–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 12–8 LA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.