Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals2
- Tanner LaczynskiAssists3
- Tanner LaczynskiPoints3
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals2
- Andrei KuzmenkoAssists2
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:32Ivan Barbashev Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (28), Brayden McNabb (3)6–4
- P318:54Brandt Clarke Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (27), Andrei Kuzmenko (12)5–4
- P315:59Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Laczynski (5), Braeden Bowman (15)5–3
- P313:26Quinton Byfield Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (11)4–3
- P312:21Reilly Smith Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Tanner Laczynski (4), Brayden McNabb (2)4–2
- P311:16Brandon Saad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (4), Alexander Holtz (6)3–2
- P38:07Colton Sissons Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Braeden Bowman (14), Adin Hill (1)2–2
- P214:44Adrian Kempe Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (17), Artemi Panarin (40)1–2
- P114:31Quinton Byfield Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Artemi Panarin (39), Brandt Clarke (22)1–1
- P110:59Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Laczynski (3), Reilly Smith (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:59Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Laczynski (3), Reilly Smith (8)VGK 1 – 0 LA · VGK 39% → 55% +16VGK 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P114:31Quinton Byfield Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Artemi Panarin (39), Brandt Clarke (22)VGK 1 – 1 LA · LA 44% → 60% +17LA 44% → 60%+17 pts
- P214:44Adrian Kempe Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (17), Artemi Panarin (40)VGK 1 – 2 LA · LA 58% → 77% +20LA 58% → 77%+20 pts
- P38:07Colton Sissons Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Braeden Bowman (14), Adin Hill (1)VGK 2 – 2 LA · VGK 17% → 45% +28VGK 17% → 45%+28 pts
- P311:16Brandon Saad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (4), Alexander Holtz (6)VGK 3 – 2 LA · VGK 46% → 80% +35VGK 46% → 80%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 62%
- ML VGK +150 / LA -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- LA: Elo 49.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LA -161
- VGK +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −3 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +1 Elo | VGK 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 90.3%10th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 17th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 8–1830th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 10th of 321517 | Elo rating | 149021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–37 | 20–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 13–36 | 5–29 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–24 | 24–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–5 LA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.