Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Trevor MoorePoints1
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Mark StonePoints3
Scoring summary
- P115:03Trevor Moore Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (10), Anze Kopitar (16)1–4
- P113:49Mitch Marner Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (18)0–4
- P113:29Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (39), Tomas Hertl (27)0–3
- P111:49Mark Stone Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (25), Jack Eichel (47)0–2
- P18:22Jack Eichel Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (38), Ivan Barbashev (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:22Jack Eichel Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (38), Ivan Barbashev (24)LA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 56% → 71% +15VGK 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P111:49Mark Stone Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (25), Jack Eichel (47)LA 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 71% → 83% +12VGK 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P113:29Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (39), Tomas Hertl (27)LA 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 83% → 92% +8VGK 83% → 92%+8 pts
- P113:49Mitch Marner Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (18)LA 0 – 4 VGK · VGK 92% → 96% +5VGK 92% → 96%+5 pts
- P115:03Trevor Moore Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (10), Anze Kopitar (16)LA 1 – 4 VGK · LA 3% → 8% +5LA 3% → 8%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 56%
- ML LA +120 / VGK -142
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 58.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -129
- LA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.6 – 2.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | VGK and LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +62 Elo | VGK 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 53.9%3rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.0%30th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 11th of 3215–14 | Road vs home | 13–1524th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 20th of 321494 | Elo rating | 151312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–35 | 19–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–29 | 12–36 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–31 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 5–4 VGK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.