Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Matt SavoieGoals1
- Matt SavoieAssists2
- Matt SavoiePoints3
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Leo CarlssonAssists2
- Leo CarlssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:46Cutter Gauthier Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (28), Chris Kreider (13)5–6
- P36:39Beckett Sennecke Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (32)5–5
- P35:53Matt Savoie Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (14), Mattias Ekholm (23)5–4
- P32:55Olen Zellweger Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (10), Troy Terry (32)4–4
- P31:30Leo Carlsson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (17), Chris Kreider (12)4–3
- P219:20Evan Bouchard Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (33), Connor McDavid (64)4–2
- P218:45Zach Hyman Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (22), Evan Bouchard (49)3–2
- P23:01Alex Killorn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (27), Mason McTavish (18)2–2
- P110:30Ian Moore Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (3), Ross Johnston (11)2–1
- P19:03Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (63), Matt Savoie (11)2–0
- P10:13Jack Roslovic Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (10), Darnell Nurse (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:45Zach Hyman Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (22), Evan Bouchard (49)EDM 3 – 2 ANA · EDM 53% → 75% +23EDM 53% → 75%+23 pts
- P32:55Olen Zellweger Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (10), Troy Terry (32)EDM 4 – 4 ANA · ANA 23% → 48% +25ANA 23% → 48%+25 pts
- P35:53Matt Savoie Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (14), Mattias Ekholm (23)EDM 5 – 4 ANA · EDM 52% → 79% +27EDM 52% → 79%+27 pts
- P36:39Beckett Sennecke Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (32)EDM 5 – 5 ANA · ANA 20% → 48% +27ANA 20% → 48%+27 pts
- P318:46Cutter Gauthier Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (28), Chris Kreider (13)EDM 5 – 6 ANA · ANA 49% → >99% +50ANA 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 54%
- ML EDM -130 / ANA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 51.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -119
- ANA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +6 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +8 Elo | EDM 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3213–16 | Road vs home | 17–95th of 32 |
| 30th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 8th of 321525 | Elo rating | 147223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–36 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–33 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–23 | 35–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 6–3 ANA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.