Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Sharks- Michael MisaGoals1
- Michael MisaAssists1
- Michael MisaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:27Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (25), Michael Misa (8)4–5
- P37:13Jake Walman Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (68), Evan Bouchard (52)4–4
- P35:30Alexander Wennberg Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (11), Mario Ferraro (10)3–4
- P32:54Trent Frederic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (14)3–3
- P215:49Evan Bouchard Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (67), Mattias Ekholm (25)2–3
- P117:05Barclay Goodrow Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Ostapchuk (2), John Klingberg (11)1–3
- P114:51Leon Draisaitl Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (66), Evan Bouchard (51)1–2
- P111:07Michael Misa Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (22)0–2
- P18:34Macklin Celebrini Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:49Evan Bouchard Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (67), Mattias Ekholm (25)EDM 2 – 3 SJ · EDM 16% → 34% +18EDM 16% → 34%+18 pts
- P32:54Trent Frederic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (14)EDM 3 – 3 SJ · EDM 29% → 55% +26EDM 29% → 55%+26 pts
- P35:30Alexander Wennberg Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (11), Mario Ferraro (10)EDM 3 – 4 SJ · SJ 45% → 73% +28SJ 45% → 73%+28 pts
- P37:13Jake Walman Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (68), Evan Bouchard (52)EDM 4 – 4 SJ · EDM 25% → 54% +30EDM 25% → 54%+30 pts
- P39:27Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (25), Michael Misa (8)EDM 4 – 5 SJ · SJ 46% → 78% +32SJ 46% → 78%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 59%
- ML EDM -162 / SJ +136
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- EDM: Elo 60.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -146
- SJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −8 | EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +75 Elo | EDM 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 45.6%32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 18th of 3214–17 | Road vs home | 14–1315th of 32 |
| 30th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321528 | Elo rating | 143030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–37 | 36–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–34 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 34–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–23 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 7–1 SJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.