San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists1
- Philipp KurashevPoints1
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals2
- Valeri NichushkinAssists3
- Valeri NichushkinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:43Brock Nelson Goal (29) Backhand, assists: none2–4
- P312:44Josh Manson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (22), Nathan MacKinnon (53)2–3
- P33:34Philipp Kurashev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P30:43Timothy Liljegren Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (27), John Klingberg (10)1–2
- P215:47Artturi Lehkonen Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (52), Valeri Nichushkin (21)0–2
- P21:05Artturi Lehkonen Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (20), Cale Makar (42)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:05Artturi Lehkonen Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (20), Cale Makar (42)SJ 0 – 1 COL · COL 68% → 82% +14COL 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P215:47Artturi Lehkonen Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (52), Valeri Nichushkin (21)SJ 0 – 2 COL · COL 83% → 94% +11COL 83% → 94%+11 pts
- P30:43Timothy Liljegren Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (27), John Klingberg (10)SJ 1 – 2 COL · SJ 5% → 17% +11SJ 5% → 17%+11 pts
- P33:34Philipp Kurashev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 2 – 2 COL · SJ 16% → 38% +22SJ 16% → 38%+22 pts
- P312:44Josh Manson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (22), Nathan MacKinnon (53)SJ 2 – 3 COL · COL 58% → 89% +31COL 58% → 89%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 72%
- ML SJ +240 / COL -298
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- COL: Elo 74.3%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -255
- SJ +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.6 – 3.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −4 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +185 Elo | COL 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 70.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.31st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.6% | Shot share | 56.0%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.4%1st of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 16th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 20–71st of 32 |
| 4th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321436 | Elo rating | 15812nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–18 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 27–26 |
| Underdog | 34–16 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 28–26 | 25–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–7 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.