Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Connor ZaryGoals1
- Connor ZaryAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Mario FerraroAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:30Mikael Backlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (16), Zach Whitecloud (9)4–1
- P311:56Nazem Kadri Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (13)3–1
- P35:22Connor Zary Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (22), Yan Kuznetsov (6)2–1
- P215:02Nazem Kadri Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (12), MacKenzie Weegar (18)1–1
- P21:17Tyler Toffoli Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Mario Ferraro (9), Michael Misa (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:17Tyler Toffoli Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Mario Ferraro (9), Michael Misa (7)CGY 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 71% +17SJ 53% → 71%+17 pts
- P215:02Nazem Kadri Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (12), MacKenzie Weegar (18)CGY 1 – 1 SJ · CGY 26% → 47% +21CGY 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P35:22Connor Zary Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (22), Yan Kuznetsov (6)CGY 2 – 1 SJ · CGY 48% → 75% +27CGY 48% → 75%+27 pts
- P311:56Nazem Kadri Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (13)CGY 3 – 1 SJ · CGY 83% → 97% +14CGY 83% → 97%+14 pts
- P317:30Mikael Backlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (16), Zach Whitecloud (9)CGY 4 – 1 SJ · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 54%
- ML CGY +110 / SJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- SJ: Elo 49.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SJ -119
- CGY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.1 – 3.4 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −9 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +3 Elo | CGY 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 45.4%32nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 31st of 328–19 | Road vs home | 14–1215th of 32 |
| 28th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 32 |
| 25th of 321463 | Elo rating | 143530th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–26 | 36–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 34–17 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 8–2 SJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.