Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints5
Scoring summary
- OT1:50Evan Bouchard Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (70), Leon Draisaitl (57)4–5
- P318:35Zach Hyman Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (56), Evan Bouchard (53)4–4
- P31:52Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (55), Connor McDavid (69)4–3
- P25:11Michael Amadio Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (12)4–2
- P24:30Drake Batherson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (37)3–2
- P116:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P16:34Drake Batherson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (25), Tim Stützle (36)2–1
- P15:03Leon Draisaitl Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (26), Matt Savoie (15)1–1
- P13:34Dylan Cozens Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (9), Thomas Chabot (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 35% → 52% +17EDM 35% → 52%+17 pts
- P24:30Drake Batherson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (37)OTT 3 – 2 EDM · OTT 48% → 67% +18OTT 48% → 67%+18 pts
- P31:52Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (55), Connor McDavid (69)OTT 4 – 3 EDM · EDM 10% → 26% +17EDM 10% → 26%+17 pts
- P318:35Zach Hyman Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (56), Evan Bouchard (53)OTT 4 – 4 EDM · EDM <1% → 50% +49EDM <1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT1:50Evan Bouchard Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (70), Leon Draisaitl (57)OTT 4 – 5 EDM · EDM 50% → 95% +44EDM 50% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 52%
- ML OTT +100 / EDM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 55.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -109
- OTT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.2 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +1 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +37 Elo | EDM 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.0% | Shot share | 52.5%6th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 88.2%30th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 11th of 3215–15 | Road vs home | 15–1417th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149232nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321515 | Elo rating | 15257th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–34 | 23–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 18–35 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 34–25 | 38–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–4 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.