Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Dylan CozensGoals2
- Dylan CozensAssists1
- Dylan CozensPoints3
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyGoals1
- Jake McCabeAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P216:06Dylan Cozens Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (35), Jake Sanderson (37)5–2
- P215:15Drake Batherson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P213:56William Nylander Goal (19) Poke, assists: Scott Laughton (4), Matias Maccelli (15)3–2
- P213:05Drake Batherson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P23:03Dylan Cozens Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (18), Fabian Zetterlund (11)2–1
- P110:59Thomas Chabot Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (24), Dylan Cozens (26)1–1
- P12:52Morgan Rielly Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (25), Jake McCabe (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:52Morgan Rielly Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (25), Jake McCabe (16)OTT 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 45% → 60% +15TOR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P110:59Thomas Chabot Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (24), Dylan Cozens (26)OTT 1 – 1 TOR · OTT 39% → 55% +16OTT 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P23:03Dylan Cozens Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (18), Fabian Zetterlund (11)OTT 2 – 1 TOR · OTT 54% → 71% +17OTT 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P213:56William Nylander Goal (19) Poke, assists: Scott Laughton (4), Matias Maccelli (15)OTT 3 – 2 TOR · TOR 12% → 26% +14TOR 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P215:15Drake Batherson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 4 – 2 TOR · OTT 74% → 89% +15OTT 74% → 89%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 55%
- ML OTT -135 / TOR +114
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 47.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -123
- TOR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −4 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.8% | Shot share | 46.4%29th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.3% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 15th of 3214–15 | Road vs home | 16–1518th of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 13th of 321510 | Elo rating | 150616th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–34 | 24–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–29 | 7–24 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 8–6 TOR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.
- Dec 27OTT 5 @ TOR 7Picked OTT 53%Miss
- May 1TOR 4 @ OTT 2PlayoffsPicked OTT 51%Miss
- Apr 29OTT 4 @ TOR 0PlayoffsPicked TOR 61%Miss
- Apr 26TOR 3 @ OTT 4PlayoffsPicked OTT 52%Hit
- Apr 24TOR 3 @ OTT 2PlayoffsPicked OTT 54%Miss
- Apr 22OTT 2 @ TOR 3PlayoffsPicked TOR 59%Hit
- Apr 20OTT 2 @ TOR 6PlayoffsPicked TOR 61%Hit
- Mar 15OTT 4 @ TOR 2Picked TOR 55%Miss