Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals2
- Anton LundellAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:08Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (24), Sam Reinhart (29)1–5
- P316:51Brad Marchand Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: none1–4
- P30:47John Tavares Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (24), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (27)1–3
- P116:40Evan Rodrigues Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P15:13Carter Verhaeghe Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (16), Anton Lundell (26)0–2
- P13:18Brad Marchand Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:18Brad Marchand Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (25)TOR 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 59% → 73% +14FLA 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P15:13Carter Verhaeghe Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (16), Anton Lundell (26)TOR 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 73% → 84% +11FLA 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P116:40Evan Rodrigues Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 86% → 93% +8FLA 86% → 93%+8 pts
- P30:47John Tavares Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (24), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (27)TOR 1 – 3 FLA · TOR 2% → 8% +6TOR 2% → 8%+6 pts
- P316:51Brad Marchand Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 4 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML TOR +136 / FLA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- FLA: Elo 62.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -146
- TOR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +2 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +86 Elo | FLA 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 52.9%5th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.1%30th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 27th of 3211–16 | Road vs home | 15–1519th of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 32 |
| 14th of 321510 | Elo rating | 15267th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–34 | 19–38 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–24 | 8–33 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 8–9 FLA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.
- Jan 6FLA 1 @ TOR 4Picked FLA 55%Miss
- Dec 2TOR 4 @ FLA 1Picked FLA 60%Miss
- May 18FLA 6 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 57%Hit
- May 16TOR 2 @ FLA 0PlayoffsPicked FLA 65%Miss
- May 14FLA 6 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit
- May 11TOR 0 @ FLA 2PlayoffsPicked FLA 64%Hit
- May 9TOR 4 @ FLA 5PlayoffsPicked FLA 67%Hit
- May 7FLA 3 @ TOR 4PlayoffsPicked FLA 59%Miss