Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists3
- Seth JarvisPoints3
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals2
- Morgan FrostAssists2
- Joel FarabeePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:48Andrei Svechnikov Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (25), Seth Jarvis (25)4–5
- P317:42Joel Farabee Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Morgan Frost (18)3–5
- P35:43Alexander Nikishin Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (42), Seth Jarvis (24)3–4
- P34:41Sean Walker Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (21), Sebastian Aho (41)2–4
- P32:24Blake Coleman Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (13)1–4
- P27:06Morgan Frost Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Zayne Parekh (2), Ryan Strome (7)1–3
- P24:11Joel Farabee Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (17), Blake Coleman (10)1–2
- P20:19Ryan Strome Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (2), Martin Pospisil (1)1–1
- P10:44Seth Jarvis Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (32), Sebastian Aho (40)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:44Seth Jarvis Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (32), Sebastian Aho (40)CAR 1 – 0 CGY · CAR 66% → 78% +12CAR 66% → 78%+12 pts
- P20:19Ryan Strome Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (2), Martin Pospisil (1)CAR 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 22% → 37% +15CGY 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P24:11Joel Farabee Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (17), Blake Coleman (10)CAR 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 38% → 56% +19CGY 38% → 56%+19 pts
- P27:06Morgan Frost Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Zayne Parekh (2), Ryan Strome (7)CAR 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 58% → 75% +18CGY 58% → 75%+18 pts
- P35:43Alexander Nikishin Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (42), Seth Jarvis (24)CAR 3 – 4 CGY · CAR 10% → 29% +19CAR 10% → 29%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML CAR -218 / CGY +180
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 58.0%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -192
- CGY +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.2 – 2.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | 0 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +56 Elo | CAR 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.0% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%5th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 5th of 3217–12 | Road vs home | 15–1621st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321566 | Elo rating | 145329th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–38 | 32–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders | 34–28 | 31–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–1 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.